As we approach America’s 250th Birthday next year on July 4, 2026, we start our President’s Report this year by hailing this momentous upcoming anniversary. We are of the view that if America had not been founded, then Ireland’s road to independence and freedom might have been quite different.

The great American experiment in government through a Constitutional Republic started at that time. It was copied in Ireland by the failed 1798 Rebellion when patriots like Robert Emmet perished in efforts to emulate America’s success. For sure, Ireland’s history and America’s history are and have been intertwined for long centuries. When Ireland finally won its freedom 103 years ago, Ireland was the poorest country in Europe. Fast forward to today - with great help from American industrial investment among other things – Ireland is the wealthiest country in Europe.

This time last year we suggested that we were entering a highly consequential time for relations between America and Ireland. And it looks like we were right. It is one year since the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, and almost one year since the election of a new Coalition government in Ireland, led by Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin. Despite the expenditure, through commentary and analysis, of many barrels of printers’ ink and many broadcast hours, the economic relationship between the two countries remains as strong as ever.

We have known for some time that President Trump has been a great admirer from afar of Ireland’s pro-business investment climate – after all he is the only President of the United States ever to have invested in Ireland. His admiration, however, is sort of like looking in the mirror. He wants American companies to invest in America and create jobs in America. He has been trying so far in his second term to make the U.S. economy more attractive for investment to both American corporations and to companies around the world – for which see the One Big Beautiful Bill which became law on July 4, 2025 and which aims to prioritize Trump’s vision.

The law attempts to do this in part by tax and spending policies that form the core of President Trump’s second-term agenda. It includes permanently extending lower tax rates for less-wealthy families that were set to expire this year. It also includes tax incentives for energy production, semiconductor manufacturing and other measures aimed at enhancing the investment climate in America.

During his first term from 2016 through 2020, it seemed like he was doing lots of huffing and puffing but no real detrimental damage to mobile international industrial investment flows from America into Ireland. His second term starting in January of this year looks like it will be very different. There could be real negative effects on Ireland’s economic relations with the United States. Using tariffs as a blunt instrument to affect trade and investment behavior, President Trump has been getting the world’s attention by doubling down on his America First economic vision.

It remains to be seen if the use of tariffs or other actions will lead to a sharp deterioration of economic flows – either trade or investment – between our two countries. For example, there are some indications that pharma products being manufactured in Ireland will be redirected to other world markets to avoid tariff costs if they were shipped back into the U.S. market. As of right now, our best guess is that there will be little real damage to the fabric of the durable and robust economic relationship between America and Ireland. But this guess comes with a big note of caution to keep watching this space.

For six decades, Ireland’s industrial strategy has been to make the country as attractive a destination as possible for overseas investment capital, especially from the United States. From the 1960s, the Irish authorities used the Industrial Development Authority, now IDA Ireland, as the main driver. It has been a remarkable success story, the envy of most other developed countries.

Earlier this year, IDA Ireland unveiled its new five-year strategy, Adapt Intelligently: A Strategy for Sustainable Growth and Innovation, 2025-29. It represents an evolution rather than a revolution in Ireland’s approach to foreign direct investment, and we welcome it. Unlike its predecessor plan, which was shaped by the immediate shocks of Covid-19 and Brexit, this is not a crisis-response plan, but instead a forward-looking blueprint for positioning Ireland to thrive at a time of medium- or long-term global change.

The most significant element of this strategy is its shift in focus from prioritizing new investment to placing more emphasis on deepening partnerships with the 1,800 multinational corporations already established in Ireland. These companies, many of them based in the United States, employ over 300,000 people and are the bedrock of Ireland’s economic success. The strategy recognizes that retaining and renewing these relationships must be the priority, and that is smart thinking. In an increasingly competitive global landscape, Ireland cannot take these investments for granted.

The strategy identifies four key growth drivers: digitalization and artificial intelligence, semiconductors, health, and sustainability. The elevation of semiconductors as a strategic priority is particularly noteworthy – it reflects Ireland’s determination to play a central role in Europe’s ambition to strengthen its position in this critical technology sector. Success in this endeavor will in turn serve to maintain and strengthen Ireland’s position as a key bridge between the United States and Europe.

At a wider level, from our vantage point here in America, what matters most is that Ireland remains competitive as a destination for U.S. investment. The strategy’s focus on innovation, talent development, and next-generation regional sites demonstrates that Ireland understands what it takes to win in today’s environment. However, success will depend on Ireland delivering on the enabling conditions the strategy identifies: cost competitiveness, efficient planning, infrastructure delivery, talent development, and attractive incentives. Ireland has always had to compete for its growth and success. Fingers crossed that this new strategy proves that Ireland is adapting intelligently to do just that.

In July, the Irish government published an updated National Development Plan representing the largest capital investment program in the State’s history. The scale is genuinely impressive: €275 billion in public investment between 2026 and 2035, with €102 billion allocated for the first five years alone. This represents an additional €34 billion relative to the previous plan, funded in part by the European Court of Justice escrow fund – the €14 billion in Apple tax payments that Ireland initially insisted it did not want!

The plan’s priorities align closely with Ireland’s most pressing infrastructure deficits. Housing receives the largest allocation at €36 billion, targeting delivery of 300,000 new homes by 2030. Water infrastructure gets €12 billion, transport receives €24 billion including funding for the long-awaited MetroLink, and energy projects receive €4 billion in equity funding. These are the foundational systems that underpin economic competitiveness and quality of life.

From the perspective of U.S. companies operating in Ireland, this investment is essential and overdue. The infrastructure constraints that have emerged in recent years – housing shortages, water capacity limitations, energy grid bottlenecks, and transport congestion – directly impact Ireland’s ability to attract and retain investment. IDA Ireland’s new strategy explicitly identifies infrastructure delivery as one of five critical enabling conditions for success, and rightly so.

However, the most pressing question is not whether Ireland has the money to invest, but whether it has the capacity to deliver. Ireland’s track record on major infrastructure projects is worryingly bad. The Dublin Metro has been planned since 2000 without one yard of track laid. The National Children’s Hospital has missed fifteen completion dates and is nearly €1 billion over budget. Planning and regulatory bottlenecks continue to delay strategic projects across the country.

The Government estimates that an additional 80,000 construction workers will be needed to meet housing targets alone, in an economy already operating at close to full employment. The plan acknowledges the need for streamlined planning processes and reduced red tape, but whether these reforms will be sufficient remains to be seen.

Ireland’s economic success has generated unprecedented resources for investment. The challenge now is execution. For American companies considering Ireland as a location for investment, the National Development Plan offers both reassurance about Ireland’s commitment to addressing infrastructure deficits and a reminder that delivery timelines in Ireland can be frustratingly long. We hope that this time, ambition will be matched by achievement.

In last year’s report, we highlighted the absurdity of the passenger cap at Dublin Airport and its damaging effects on Ireland’s competitiveness. It was a clear abrogation of Government responsibility and damaging to the national interest to leave a vital national planning matter like this within the prerogative of a small regional planning outfit like Fingal County Council. Indeed, many Ireland-U.S Council member companies, including Aer Lingus and the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA), flagged this as an urgent issue. We are pleased to report that the Irish government has finally taken action on the matter.

In September, Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien secured Cabinet approval to progress primary legislation to shift responsibility for this matter to the National Government. The 32 million annual passenger cap that has constrained Dublin Airport since 2007 was removed. This represents sensible and welcome progress, though the timeline remains frustratingly slow – the legislation is not expected to be enacted until the end of 2026.

The cap was originally imposed by local planning officials based on unfounded fears about road congestion. It had become an increasingly serious constraint on Ireland’s economic development. With passenger numbers reaching 34.6 million in 2024 and projected to exceed this number in 2025, the airport has been operating beyond its legal capacity, forcing airlines to curtail growth plans and hampering new route development.

The Government’s decision recognizes Dublin Airport’s strategic importance as Ireland’s primary international gateway. Airport operator DAA has ambitious plans to grow capacity to 40 million passengers annually, supported by major infrastructure investments including a new underpass and integration with the planned MetroLink rail connection.

From our perspective, this development is essential for maintaining Ireland’s attractiveness as a destination for American investment and for sustaining the robust transatlantic connectivity that underpins the economic relationship between our two countries. However, the delay in implementation means that for at least another year, Ireland remains effectively closed to significant new international business requiring additional air capacity. We hope the Government will expedite this legislation and demonstrate the kind of decisive action on infrastructure that Ireland’s competitive position demands.

Ireland faces an acute housing shortage that has been building for nearly two decades. Successive governments have failed to build, or to encourage the building of, sufficient houses and apartments to meet the needs of a growing population. Ireland’s Central Bank estimates that 52,000 homes need to be built annually to keep pace with demand, while independent analysts suggest the true figure may be as high as 93,000 homes per year through 2031. The government’s National Development Plan targets 300,000 new homes by 2030 – an average of 50,000 per year – but even this ambitious goal falls short of what many experts believe is required.

The consequences of this failure have become severe. The median house price reached €370,000 in May 2025, with the average residential property selling for €426,000 – eight times average earnings of €53,000. Housing affordability has hit a sixteen-year low. For young people starting their careers, the prospect of home ownership has become increasingly remote, creating a generation locked out of the property market.

The impact on Ireland’s young people has been devastating. According to one study, 13 percent of Irish people in their twenties have emigrated, with 62 percent of 25-year-olds living at home for mostly financial reasons. Three in five of those under-25s are considering emigration, with almost one in three strongly considering leaving Ireland to seek a better quality of life abroad. Among students, 95 percent identify housing as a major source of financial strain. In the year to April 2025, 35,000 Irish citizens emigrated while only 31,500 returned – the third consecutive year of net emigration. Ireland is losing the talent and energy of its young people because it cannot provide them with affordable places to live.

The housing crisis has been significantly exacerbated by parallel failures in immigration policy. Widespread abuse of the asylum system, combined with a lacklustre response from the State, has meant that many thousands of applicants with no genuine claim to be fleeing oppression or war have remained in Ireland with their welfare and accommodation provided by the State, while their lawyers, also State-funded, file appeal after appeal to avoid deportation. The numbers tell the story: in 2016, Ireland received 2,244 asylum applications; in 2024, that figure reached a record 18,651 applications. As of recent data, 33,822 asylum seekers remain in State-provided accommodation, and many thousands of successful applicants receive housing support from central or local government.

This situation, along with the accommodation needs of approximately 80,000 Ukrainian nationals (out of 113,917 total arrivals since 2022) seeking temporary protection in Ireland for the duration of the war in Ukraine, has reduced by tens of thousands the number of homes available for Irish citizens and other legal residents. The State spent €416 million on accommodation for asylum seekers and Ukrainian refugees in the first quarter of 2025 alone, at an average cost of €122,000 per international protection applicant for accommodation and processing.

While the percentage has declined from previous highs, thousands of hotel rooms have been removed from the tourism market under government contracts, distorting Ireland’s hospitality offering at a time when transatlantic tourism from the United States has been recovering strongly.

We welcome the recent moves by Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan to address these failures. His International Protection Bill 2025 represents the most significant reform of Irish asylum laws in decades, with measures to speed up processing and reduce reliance on commercial accommodation. The introduction of a voluntary return incentive offering €10,000 to families who drop asylum claims is a pragmatic response that will save the State money. His commitment to increase deportations of failed asylum seekers and reduce annual asylum applications to fewer than 10,000 represents a necessary course correction.

However, much more work is needed. Until Ireland can provide adequate housing for its own citizens and legal residents, and until it can offer young people a realistic path to home ownership, the country’s economic and social development will remain constrained. The continued exodus of talented young Irish people represents not just a personal tragedy for those forced to leave, but a strategic loss for Ireland’s future competitiveness.

Ireland’s economic success in recent years has been accompanied by a worrying trend: government spending is accelerating at what the Central Bank of Ireland and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council have both described as an unsustainable rate. This spending trajectory, combined with dramatic growth in public sector employment, raises serious questions about Ireland’s long-term fiscal sustainability and competitiveness.

The numbers are stark. The Central Bank warned in September that the Government’s proposed €9 billion budget package for 2026 involves “too much spending” and would provide an “unnecessary stimulus” to an already healthy economy. Day-to-day spending overruns are projected to touch €3 billion by year end, far above budgeted levels. Government spending surged by 6 percent in 2025, significantly exceeding targets. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council stated that such overruns amount to “poor planning and budgeting.”

The Central Bank has made clear that current spending levels cannot be sustained without raising taxes. This warning takes on added urgency given Ireland’s narrow tax base and heavy reliance on corporation tax receipts from a small number of multinational enterprises—receipts that may prove vulnerable in an era of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation and potential changes to international tax arrangements.

Alongside rising spending, Ireland has presided over extraordinary growth in public sector employment. The civil service has expanded by nearly 50 percent over the past decade, from 36,000 in 2015 to just under 53,000 today. The broader public service now employs over 400,000 people – forecast to reach 426,500 in 2025, the highest level ever recorded. The Health Service Executive has seen particularly dramatic expansion, with employment increasing by 38 percent. The public sector pay bill now stands at nearly €28 billion annually.

While Ireland pushes ahead with spending increases, the Financial Times noted in October that the country’s European neighbours are reining in expenditure. The ESRI has warned of the danger of overheating the economy, while the Central Bank emphasizes the need to broaden the tax base to create fiscal capacity for essential infrastructure investment outlined in the National Development Plan.

For American companies operating in or considering investment in Ireland, fiscal sustainability matters. Unsustainable spending growth today may necessitate tax increases tomorrow, potentially eroding Ireland’s competitive advantages. The current trajectory suggests Ireland is consuming rather than investing its prosperity, a pattern that rarely ends well. Prudent fiscal management and spending discipline are not merely technical concerns—they are essential to maintaining Ireland’s attractiveness as a destination for international investment.

We in The Ireland-U.S. Council have never involved ourselves in party politics. And likely never will. We remain committed to strictly non-partisan stances and deliberately stay focused mainly on business. However, political stability and policy predictability matter enormously to corporations. Companies do not invest places where there is a volatile environment, they would prefer simply to wait. We have noted the growing sense of political instability across the European Union. We see evidence that Ireland is not exempt from these trends.

Winds of political change are blowing in Europe, in our opinion, as conservative/populist right parties gain strength and power across the continent. These challenge a latter-day emergence of trends toward growing central control on policy, open borders and failed green energy concepts. The European experiment as envisioned by Brussels bureaucrats looks like it’s in trouble. We are witnessing a growing popular hostility to many of the core ideas promoted by those seeking a stronger Federal European central government.

The changes are becoming quite remarkable: In Italy, a European conservative firebrand has been born in Giorgia Meloni. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán continues his long tenure. Slovakia, Finland, Croatia, Belgium and Poland all have such conservative parties in coalition governments or in other positions of power. In France, Marine Le Pen’s ‘National Rally’ leads the opinion surveys but has been excluded from power. Germany’s Alice Wiedel’s ‘Alternative für Deutschland’ polls second but has been kept out of Government. Austria’s Freedom Party won the most votes in 2024. In the United Kingdom, the ruling Labour Party looks like it’s in deep trouble – keep an eye on Nigel Farage and Reform UK party which is top of the current political opinion polls.

These parties are directly at odds with the European Commission on core policy areas. They oppose the migration pact that was passed by the European Parliament last year. This pact has had a noticeably negative impact -- spiralling violent crime, property theft and a rupture of social cohesion -- in Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and elsewhere. Denmark has opted out of the pact completely, adopting a far more restrictive model. Italy has gone so far as to imply it will leave the European Union if necessary to regain control of its own borders.

On climate policy, opposition to the Green Deal has become a defining tenet, with some parties challenging the European Union’s 2040 emissions target and resisting carbon taxes. They frame these battles as defences of national sovereignty against overreach by the European Commission and even the European Council.

The ongoing war in Ukraine adds another layer of complexity. Ukraine’s potential European Union membership would create enormous challenges for the Common Agricultural Policy. With Ukraine’s massive agricultural sector, that country would become the main beneficiary of subsidies. This prospect alarms existing EU farmers and provides ammunition for those who oppose expansion. Agricultural negotiations are already considered among the most difficult stumbling blocks in Ukraine’s accession process.

Social issues further divide Europe. Debates over ‘hate speech’ legislation reveal fundamentally different approaches to balancing liberty and protection. Ireland has officially told Europe (for the first time as we recall as a member of the European Union) that it will not comply with the mandate to introduce “hate speech” measures. Questions of national versus European identity and cultural integration generate ongoing friction.

Ireland is not immune to these trends. A recent poll revealed that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for nearly a century – now command a combined 35 percent support, their lowest level ever recorded. Two constitutional referendums were roundly rejected by voters – these were on ‘identity’ issues and were proposed this past year by the government parties with the support of almost all the opposition parties in the Dáil (Irish parliament).

In last month’s Presidential Election in Ireland, these same parties, untrusting of the electorate, combined to block all but three candidates from the ballot paper. This cynical approach led to the election of Catherine Connolly, a left-wing independent known for her antipathy toward capitalism and free markets. Mind you, the emeritus inhabitant of Áras an Uachtaráin - the President’s House - was well-known for his dislike of the conservative political system that favoured free market systems.

So, we suppose the powerless position of President of Ireland does not really impact the lives of ordinary working people who benefit from those same free market principles. However, it would be nice now and then for Ireland to have a President whose political sympathies were more in tune with most folks in the country. We know there is great unhappiness in Ireland at how this election shambles was foisted on the people. We would not be surprised to see some major political change being forced on the established political hierarchy by rising popular public indignation.

For American businesses invested in Ireland and Europe, political instability creates uncertainty. Policy coherence, regulatory predictability, and continued commitment to open markets cannot be taken for granted in this environment.

The Ireland-U.S. Council Foundation’s Blueprint Ireland project continues its important work of non-partisan research and planning for the future of the island of Ireland. As we have noted previously, the fallout from Brexit and changing demographics have increased the likelihood of constitutional change in Ireland in the coming years. The time to plan intelligently for such possibilities is now, not after events have overtaken us.

We believe the future of Ireland is too important for any one political party or ideology to dominate the discussions. That is why the Foundation has established Blueprint Ireland to carry out independent, rigorous research across a range of business sectors critical to Ireland’s economic future.

The project’s research agenda encompasses trade and market access, industrial policy, financial services, energy, transport and tourism, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, and communications. We aim to measure, cost and compare options for a future Ireland, with a focus on maximizing the opportunities that could emerge from any future change on the island. We will develop an evaluation framework to ensure coherence across all research areas, so that findings can be integrated and costed as a comprehensive whole.

The lessons from Brexit and German reunification are clear: without detailed plans in place, you will not achieve optimal outcomes. Right now, there are two very different economies on the island of Ireland. While the Republic has embraced free trade and made itself highly attractive for foreign direct investment, the North has lagged behind. Intelligent planning can help bridge these differences and maximize opportunities for the entire island.

This is a historic moment—one that many previous generations yearned for but never reached. Irish Americans have always been part of the Irish story, from 1776 forward. The 1916 Proclamation itself acknowledges the support of “exiled children in America,” and the Irish peace process would not have succeeded without Irish American involvement and U.S. leadership. It is appropriate that Irish Americans are part of the conversation that will shape Ireland for decades, perhaps centuries, to come.

Our aim is to provide for Irish Americans and all friends of Ireland an opportunity to contribute in a thoughtful and non-partisan way to the discussion on Ireland’s future. We encourage all members of the Council to support the Blueprint Ireland initiative through the Ireland-U.S. Council Foundation, which is a 501(c)(3) charitable organization. Contributions are fully tax-deductible to the extent allowed by law. The work of Blueprint Ireland is timely, important, and historic. We invite you to be part of it.

We’re always delighted to welcome new members to the Ireland- U.S. Council as we pursue our mission and activities across the Atlantic. As a membership-driven organization, we extend our Céad Míle Fáilte to prospective members and encourage our current members to help spread the word. The Council’s mission resonates strongly: we firmly believe that economic ties between Ireland—both north and south—and the United States will continue to strengthen and flourish, bringing greater prosperity to communities on both sides of the ocean.

Business conditions in Ireland, the United States, and between our two nations continue their positive trajectory after the challenges of recent years, and we see a bright outlook ahead. The Ireland-U.S. Council’s core mission remains constant: strengthening business relationships and commercial ties between the United States and Ireland. As we develop our program of activities for 2026 and beyond, we remain focused on ensuring these vital connections continue to thrive. We extend our sincere gratitude to all our members, supporters, sponsors, and friends – both in the United States and Ireland – for their engagement and support over the past year. As we enter the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead, we hope you will maintain your commitment to this important work.

Beir Bua agus Beannacht

Tom Higgins

Council President

November 13, 2025

New York City